San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

Mortgage rates didn’t get into the fives until early April, and up until then, the frenzied-out buyers were grabbing something at any price. The June index will show the full effect, which we’ll get at the end of August.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

“Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer,” says Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “All 20 cities saw double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in March, and price growth in 17 cities accelerated relative to February’s report.”

The expectation is that prices will begin to ease, since home sales have been falling now for several months. Demand, however, is still high, and real estate agents report that they are still seeing multiple offers for homes that are priced well. More supply is also coming on the market, as sellers worry they will miss out on the last days of the hot market.

“Mortgages are becoming more expensive as the Federal Reserve has begun to ratchet up interest rates, suggesting that the macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer. Although one can safely predict that price gains will begin to decelerate, the timing of the deceleration is a more difficult call,” added Lazzara.

In recent weeks, the housing market has shifted, said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “As buyer confidence sags and weighs down demand, real estate markets will re-balance, eventually tilting away from the heavy advantage that recent home sellers have enjoyed.”

(The San Diego seasonally-adjusted index was 416.51)